Erdogan as President. Studying the outcomes and implications | opinions

Turkey's Supreme Elections Committee has introduced that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has received a 3rd presidential time period after main re-election over his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu by a transparent margin, in response to preliminary outcomes, within the hardest electoral contest ever. a person has run for the reason that founding of the Justice and Improvement Get together in 2001.

The outcome

In response to preliminary outcomes, the Turkish president received 51.16% of the vote with 27.7 million votes, and his opponent, the opposition candidate Folks's Alliance, Kilicdaroglu, received 47.84% of the vote with 25, 4 million votes, a distinction of practically 2.3 million. voice.

Round 53.8 million voters took half within the polls, with turnout near 84% in Turkey, with round 700,000 votes solid off this spherical, after Turks overseas recorded shut turnout by 54%. Erdogan additionally obtained 59.4% of the votes of the Turks overseas, towards 40.6% in favor of his rival, Kilicdaroglu.

The primary statement of the second spherical is that the turnout in Kurdish majority areas, in addition to the proportion of votes for Kılıçdaroğlu in them, has dropped significantly, and an analogous factor might be stated about some giant cities which have an influential “Kurdish” voice, like Istanbul.

The map of the outcomes didn't change a lot, as Kılıçdaroğlu once more superior within the provinces on the west coast of the nation, that are clear areas of affect for his occasion, along with the entire of the southern areas and within the predominantly Kurdish south-east, because of the help of the Peoples' Democratic Get together. Alternatively, Erdogan maintained his progress in different areas, notably the Black Sea and central Anatolia. Maybe the province of Hatay, one of many provinces affected by the earthquake, was the one exception within the second spherical, because it was a easy majority in favor of the Turkish president, whereas the scenario was reversed within the first spherical.

Kilicdaroglu additionally beat Erdogan once more in a number of main cities, primarily Istanbul and Ankara, with a slight change in outcomes and a sharper drop in turnouts from the primary spherical.

In areas with a Kurdish majority, the place Kilicdaroglu maintained a transparent benefit over President Erdogan, because of the help given to him by the Folks's Democratic Get together, turnout charges, in addition to the odds obtained by the opposition candidate, clearly lower. In Diyarbakir, the area's largest province, for instance, voter turnout fell from 81.7% to 75.9%, and the vote for Kilicdaroglu fell by practically 40,000 votes, in comparison with a slight improve for Erdogan, shut to three,000 votes. . The outcomes for the remainder of the area's governorates are very near this pattern.

In an essential distinction in comparison with the primary spherical, the counting course of was a lot sooner and the primary outcomes got here out a lot sooner than within the first spherical, as a result of absence of issues linked to the legislative elections through which 24 events and 5 main alliances, which made the voting and counting processes extra advanced and time-consuming within the spherical.

semantics

When studying the outcomes, one mustn't lose sight of the truth that the electoral course of went easily and easily and was accomplished with out main incidents or shortcomings, which was talked about by the Supreme Electoral Fee and welcomed by the 2 elements. And whereas the shedding candidate, Kilicdaroglu, prevented instantly congratulating Erdogan, his transient speech after the announcement of the outcome signified recognition of the outcomes and satisfaction with the choice of the individuals.

The outcome has two contradictory and complementary angles on the identical time. These elections have been probably the most troublesome within the historical past of Erdogan and the Justice and Improvement Get together. The latter fell significantly within the legislative elections, and the president couldn't win within the first spherical and wanted a second spherical. However from one other angle, that is the sixteenth consecutive electoral victory for Erdogan and his occasion for the reason that latter was based in 2001 and took energy within the nation in 2002, and in mild of financial situations troublesome instances and a catastrophic earthquake and after the unification of the opposition in an unprecedented method, which is a uncommon phenomenon and could also be distinctive as it's customary for events and personalities. What has dominated for a very long time is topic to sagging, regressing, and fading away after some time, and this can be a rule which has eluded as much as the time, the person and his occasion.

The drop in turnout was anticipated, as a result of proximity between the 2 rounds and the logistical challenges this entails for some voters, along with the outcomes of the primary spherical, which reassured some Erdogan supporters and a few Kilicdaroglu. supporters to frustration, however plainly the drop within the vote was shut between the 2 camps. Right here, the proportion of international votes gave the impression to be an exception and was primarily pushed by the will from outdoors to affect the end result in view of the end result of the primary spherical, and the low turnout in comparison with inside allowed the likelihood to extend it's comparatively.

An essential word from the results of the second spherical is that the distinction between the 2 contestants didn't change a lot, so Erdogan's votes elevated by round 600,000 votes and Kilicdaroglu by lower than a million votes, which implies that none of them might win a majority. votes that went to the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, or as an example the Ogan bloc didn't transfer uniformly or considerably in direction of any of them and subsequently had a really restricted affect on the end result.

The primary statement from the second spherical is that turnout in Kurdish-majority areas, in addition to the proportion of votes for Kılıçdaroğlu in them, dropped considerably. The identical might be stated of some giant cities which have a “Kurdish” Voice affect, similar to Istanbul. Certainly, the Turkish president raised the variety of his votes within the provinces with The Kurdish majority is somewhat weaker, which implies that the opposition candidate has borne the brunt of his alliance with the far proper Al-Nasr Get together and for signing an settlement with him that irritated HDP supporters.

Moreover, Kilicdaroglu's continued progress in numerous main main cities, primarily Istanbul and Ankara, signifies that the municipal elections subsequent March might be a significant problem for the Justice and Improvement Get together, particularly if the alliance to 6 continues.

bounces

The latest elections have been distinctive in Turkey and really completely different from all of the earlier ones, and subsequently the stakes have been excessive, elevating hopes of repercussions of their outcomes on the completely different events, and subsequently they've lengthy been described as fateful.

To start with, and regardless of the victory and the euphoria of the victory, the Turkish president won't fail to return again to the results of the Justice and Improvement Get together, which fell within the legislative elections by 7% in comparison with the final elections, the place it was already 7% withdrew from the elections that preceded it in 2011. This bleeding The continued reputation of the ruling occasion and voting for it's a worrying phenomenon and you'll have to oppose it and attempt to treatment it, in any other case the problem within the upcoming elections might be very completely different, particularly with the completely different form of the opposition, its alliances and the observe report of its events lately.

Alternatively, Kilicdaroglu added one other defeat towards Erdogan to his report, however this time within the mild of hopes and expectations of an important risk of profitable, in addition to having imposed his candidacy, regardless of objections, on its gone then on the desk at six. Due to this fact, the result's anticipated to have repercussions throughout the Folks's Republican Get together, and among the man's phrases after the primary spherical and after the second spherical outcome can simply be interpreted as addressing to his opponents throughout the occasion earlier than Erdogan. and the Jamhour Alliance.

Lastly, there are legitimate questions in regards to the destiny of the opposition's six-party desk: on the one hand, it has misplaced the primary concept that united its events, which is to convey the nation again to the parliamentary system, which had wanted a majority in Parliament, and its candidate misplaced the presidential elections. Alternatively, sure traits of agitation appeared within the opposition coalition and a state of blame and disagreements which have been hid as a lot as potential till the second spherical in order to not have an effect on its outcomes.

Nevertheless, the exit of Kilicdaroglu alone in his post-result speech, and the exit of his allies with separate statements, make it clear that the latent variations are prone to emerge publicly quickly, that means that the unity of the six-man desk might be in play within the subsequent step.